GMWest: a risk assessment system for gypsy moth introductions in the Pacific Northwest

Description
The Gypsy moth, (Lymantria dispar), an exotic pest of many host tree/shrub species in North America, is annually introduced many times throughout the Pacific Northwest. Quantifying potential risks for gypsy moth establishment in this region is difficult and climate change poses additional challenges for regulatory agencies.

A new system, GMWest, was created to help predict gypsy moth establishment probability for specific locations in Utah and was expanded to include the Pacific Northwest region. System development first required acquiring a variety of databases regarding landscape features, vegetation, weather, and climate variables. "Probability of establishment" maps were produced using weather and climate variables from the database as input to a validated gypsy moth phenology model. Subsequently, a "hazard of establishment" map layer was produced that could be combined with other GIS layers in the database (host distribution, land use, demographic, topographic, and transportation) to produce a "risk of establishment" map.

Purpose and Scope
GMWest is a landscape risk assessment system that evaluates the risk of establishment of the gypsy moth through integration of gypsy moth life history requirements, topography, historical and projected weather data, and host species distributions. The system was developed in Utah and has been expanded to include the Pacific Northwest

Use
ESRI ArcMap model, BioSIM Software

Citation

Logan, J.A., Regniere, J., Gray, D.R., Munson, A.S. 2007. Risk assessment in the face of a changing environment: Gypsy moth and climate change in Utah. Ecological Applications 17(1): 101–117.

Inputs:

Spatial datasets: Probability of establishment (BioSIM), Vegetation Classification, Urban areas.

Outputs:

Risk establishment map layer