Habitat suitability models for understory shrubs of western North America

These data provide current and future projected habitat distribution models for four shrub species: beaked hazelnut (Corylus cornuta), Oregon grape (Mahonia aquifolium), salal (Gaultheria shallon), and black huckleberry, (Vaccinium membranaceum), as well as a current projected habitat distribution model for evergreen huckleberry (Vaccinium ovatum). Each raster file represents the projected habitat suitability for each shrub species, climate scenario, and time period. Files are named according to the species (coco = Corylus cornuta, maaq = Mahonia aquifolium, gash = Gaultheria shallon, vame = Vaccinium membranaceum, and vaov2 = Vaccinium ovatum), then the RCP pathway (none for current, 'low' for RCP 4.5, and 'high' for RCP 8.5), and lastly, the time period (current = 1981-2010, mid = 2041-2071, and end = 2071-2100). For example, 'maaq_low_mid.tif' is a raster file showing projected habitat suitability for Mahonia aquifolium for mid-century (2041-2070) under RCP 4.5.

Purpose

Climate change is altering the suitable habitat and phenology of plant species around the world, with cascading effects on people and animals reliant upon those plant species as food sources. Here, we modelled how the range of several culturally-important, food-producing shrub species may change as the climate changes. We utilized citizen scientist observations, long-term plot data, and gridded climate data to identify climate variables that best predicted the current bioclimatic niche of five species: beaked hazelnut (Corylus cornuta), Oregon grape (Mahonia aquifolium), salal (Gaultheria shallon), black huckleberry, (Vaccinium membranaceum), and evergreen huckleberry (Vaccinium ovatum). We then used multi-model future climate projections for 2 time periods (2041–2070 and 2071–2100) and 2 greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5) to project changes in habitat suitability for four species: beaked hazelnut (Corylus cornuta), Oregon grape (Mahonia aquifolium), salal (Gaultheria shallon), and black huckleberry, (Vaccinium membranaceum).

Citation

Prevey, J.S., Parker, L.E., Brodie, L.C., and Harrington, C.A. 2022, Habitat suitability models for understory shrubs of western North America: U.S. Geological Survey data release, https://doi.org/10.5066/P9Z2TVGA.