Hotspots for bird biodiversity will be burning even hotter in future fires

Photo Credit

Courtesy of the Cornell Lab of Ornithology; Photo by Blair Dudeck

A flammulated owl in characteristic coniferous forest habitat

We identified hotspots of avian biodiversity based on the number of species, the diversity of species traits, and the uniqueness of community composition. Using predictions of future fire severity for the western United States, we found that if a fire occurs, about 30% of hotspots will burn at high severity, and for the majority of those hotspots the high severity fire will be outside the historical norm and therefore a potential threat. We also identified refugia, or hotspots that are not predicted to burn at high severity, which may be protective areas for biodiversity. Some species stood out as likely to be most impacted by future high severity fire including the flammulated owl which is expected to experience high severity fire across ~60% of its breeding range.

This is the first time priority areas for future fire risk have been identified across such a large extent and for bird communities. Instead of assessing the impacts of past fires on biodiversity, this research takes a forward looking approach to potentially reduce the negative impacts of future uncharacteristic high severity fire. The hotspot areas of concern and refugia can be used by managers to prioritize areas for high severity fire mitigation through forest thinning and prescribed fire.

Publications

Norman et al. 2026. Exposure of western United States bird communities to predicted high severity fire