New science-based model helps forest managers target fuels treatments where they make the most sense

The Stanislaus National Forest in California lies three hours from Sacramento or San Fransisco, and visitors will likely encounter winding highways and gravel roads on their journey there. But the destination is worth the trek. Highland lakes, towering pines, and peaks hewn from the same granite as El Capitan in Yosemite National Park — just to the forest’s south — await determined souls.

The forest’s isolation also makes it a challenge to manage. Overgrown vegetation — dried by the effects of a changing climate — fuels all-too-frequent and intense wildfires. To remedy, forest crews often remove vegetation that ladder flames into treetops. But this work leaves crews with tons of low value forest debris. They may grind it and scatter it on the forest floor or ship it to processing plants — both solutions requiring crews to haul heavy equipment deep into forests. Winding roads, mountainous terrain, and long distances make these solutions expensive and labor-intensive. And the cost of hauling debris to plants often exceeds the value of the product.

Not to mention, the Stanislaus spans 900,000 acres. It’s simply too big for crews to reduce fuels on every square inch.

“We need science to help us plan and act at scales of hundreds of thousands of acres,” says Jason Kuiken, Stanislaus National Forest Supervisor. “Because that’s the scale necessary to keep up with wildland fire.”

That’s why USDA Forest Service researcher John Hogland developed a scientific model pinpointing where fuels treatments make the most sense. With the model, Kuiken and his staff can measure where forest density exceeds desired conditions. They can evaluate whether an overgrown site might threaten homes and campsites if it ignites. They can see what treatments might best reduce fuels. They can map distance to the nearest processing plant and forecast road conditions leading to it. They can calculate if hauling debris will net money under current and projected markets. And they can combine these metrics — and more — to target fuels treatments.

In the past, crews mostly removed large trees from forests and transported them to mills, which produced high value lumber. Therefore, prior harvest models often prioritized profit over forest health or fire concerns.

This new model is helping the Forest Service reduce wildfire risk in the places it most threatens communities. After the model’s pilot period, other national forests will use it to target fuels treatments. Hogland also intends the model as a tool for state, private, and Tribal forest managers — as it can flex to meet evolving needs. It can adapt to changing landscapes, rerun analyses with newer tools, and quickly process new inputs.

Back at the Stanislaus, people in hammocks laze near crystal waters while bluejays flit overhead. Later, they may dine in a forest town like Long Barn or Tuolumne or camp under the stars. And the work of Jason Kuiken, John Hogland, and many others ensure the forest endures for these visitors and those to come.

The Forest Service is working through a years-long, science-based roadmap for creating safer and more fire-resilient landscapes and communities, reducing wildfire risk to critical infrastructure and natural resources, and fostering strong collaboration across all lands.