Seven days ahead: Mapping where firelines may hold

The likelihood that a fireline or other potential control feature will prevent, slow, or otherwise alter wildfire behavior is not fixed—it can change substantially as wind, humidity, vegetation, and terrain conditions change. 

Fire managers from the Okanogan–Wenatchee National Forest along with researcher Jesse Young and colleagues coproduced research about wildfire containment-effectiveness, which they translated into operational maps for the Central Washington landscape. Young developed a workflow that automatically combines forecast weather with terrain and vegetation information, creates a separate map for each of the next seven days, and publishes the results as operational ArcGIS layers. This decision-support product helps managers see not only where containment may be more successful, but also how those opportunities may change over the coming week. 

This work can help teams compare strategic options, identify locations that warrant additional caution, and prepare or stage resources before less favorable conditions arrive. By bringing probability of containment success into planning conversations earlier, the tool can support safer decisions and help limit avoidable firefighter exposure, while still leaving final decisions to experienced incident personnel.

Photo Credit

Forest Service figure by Jesse Young

Maps of the Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest display where and when wildfire operations will have the best chances of stopping wildfire spread over a seven-day period. This forecast shows the important and dynamic role weather plays in efforts to contain wildfire.