FireCLIME VA: Identifying vulnerability of southwestern landscapes to changes in climate and wildfire regimes

Fire-climate interactions are complex and mediated by climate effects on vegetation productivity and resulting fuel loads, fuel conditions, and environmental conditions at the time and place of ignition. As part of a larger Joint Fire Sciences Project (JFSP), RMRS scientist, Megan Friggens, developed a vulnerability assessment tool based on the current scientific understanding of fire-landscape interactions. The resulting FireCLIME Vulnerability Assessment (VA) tool scores ecosystems based on current and future expected climate-fire-vegetation relationships as they relate to user inputs about desired future conditions. 

This tool provides inference on the mechanisms driving vulnerability and which management strategies may be most effective for reducing risk under changing climate conditions. By identifying which fire regime and ecosystem components are most likely to be affected by climate, and which treatments are able to mitigate impacts, the FireCLIME VA can provide information critical for planning under changing fire regimes and fuel conditions. Over the last year, RMRS scientists and collaborators have used the FireCLIME tool to assess landscapes in three different National Forests: The Jemez Ranger District of the Santa Fe NF and Lincoln NF in New Mexico, and the Bighorn NF in Wyoming. Two of these assessments were co-produced with National Forest staff in an effort to provide training and tailor the results of the assessment to the specific needs of each National Forest.

Approach

The first case study focused on ponderosa pine and dry mixed conifer ecosystems in the Jemez Ranger District of the Santa Fe National Forest located in northern New Mexico. The FireCLIME team used this case study to test how well the VA tool could assess ecosystem vulnerability based only on published scientific research. Several assessment iterations were made to: 

1. Outline the specific ways each distinct ecosystem responds to future climate change
2. Test the effectiveness of three treatment alternatives (outlined in the 2015 Final Environmental Impact Statement) for reducing vulnerability
3. Produce scores under different weighting schemes that represent different types of management focus

For the second case study, RMRS scientists worked with the Lincoln National Forest (LNF), in southern New Mexico, to assess the vulnerability Ponderosa Pine within the Perk-Grindstone treatment project. This assessment was completed over two half-day workshops held virtually. During the first workshop, RMRS presented a training webinar and began the process to collect data necessary for the VA. During the second workshop, RMRS and collaborators worked with LNF staff to determine desired future conditions for landscape components and fire regimes, responses of ecosystem and fuel components to climate-fire interactions, and management strategies for comparisons. Following the workshop, RMRS collaborators permutated several iterations of the tool to estimate vulnerability for these two ecosystems under different climate scenarios and weighting schemes.

The third case study is ongoing and is being conducted in collaboration with the Big Horn National Forest (BNF). The first virtual workshop, conducted in April of 2019, focused on Lodgepole pine ecosystems in the Buffalo Municipal Watershed. As with the LNF, RMRS and collaborators will compare vulnerability among two ecosystems and under several management and weighting scenarios.

Key Findings

• The FireCLIME VA tool works equally well as a stand-alone research tool or within an interactive session. However, literature based assessments tend to be more broadly applicable and are probably not appropriate or useful for project level decision making processes.
• If the FireCLIME VA tool is meant to provide project level information, it is critical that managers have role in defining the baseline conditions used within the tool, specifically the desired future conditions and management strategies.
• The FireCLIME VA is able to distinguish between ecological and fuel based drivers of vulnerability. Similarly, FireCLIME VA results were able to identify the specific ways different management strategies might or might not reduce vulnerability through their influence on ecological and fuel components.
• Case studies for the Jemez Ranger District of the Santa Fe National Forest and Lincoln National Forest are currently being drafted for publication. 

Collaborators

• Rachel A. Loehman - USGS
• Andrea Thode - Northern Arizona University
• William Flatley - University of Central Arkansas
• Craig Wilcox - USFS
• Bernie Bornong - USFS
• Windy Bunn - NPS
• Zander Evans - Forest Guild
• Donald Falk - University of Arizona
• Larissa Yocom - Utah State University
• Stephanie Mueller - Northern Arizona University

Funding Contributors

• Joint Fire Science Program
• Grassland, Shrubland and Desert Ecosystems Program