Incorporating adaptation strategies across the interior West: Adaptive silviculture for climate change (ASCC) in Rocky Mountain Forest types

There is an urgent need to develop adaptive management strategies that foster ecosystem resilience to the impact of climate change and enable forests to adapt to uncertain future conditions. This project utilizes a scientist-land manager partnership to implement and evaluate robust large- scale operational replicated studies of three adaptive management treatments strategies (resistance, resilience, and transition) and untreated controls in dry and moist mixed conifer, lodgepole pine, and Engelmann spruce-subalpine fir forest types across the footprint of the Rocky Mountains. This research will allow the Forest Service scientists and cooperators to obtain funding to continue this long-term research and make an enduring impact on reducing wildland fire risk and foster resilient forests and watersheds, as well as confronting climate change, beyond the milestones and deliverables summarized below. 

40804(b)(1): Restoring ecological health 

Over the past decade, RMRS scientists, external partners, National Forest System land managers and local stakeholders have attended a series of workshops to:

1. Provide training in climate change science and adaptive management for natural resource managers
2. To develop a spectrum of adaptive management treatments designed to accommodate the effects of an uncertain future climate

Within these designed treatments several tactics were proposed and implemented including thinning, natural regeneration harvests, and a range of seedling assisted migration approaches. These research installations are designed to serve as long-term research infrastructure that will be available for a range of disciplines to explore the implications of different management strategies to address the uncertainty in future climate. As part of the international Adaptive Silviculture for Climate Change (ASCC) network, a collaborative network of a series of experimental silvicultural trails across different forest ecosystem types in the United States and Canada, there is ample opportunity to inspire cross-site analysis and produce actionable science- based forest management practices across major forest types of North America. This research will inform landscape-level restoration efforts across millions of acres in the intermountain west. We will continue and expand our baseline pre-treatment data collection, develop and implement our seedling assisted migration plans, and secure initial post-treatment data collection. 

Each of the 4 sites within the Rocky Mountains are at different stages of project development. All sites have already invested a substantial amount of time developing and implementing the collaborative 2-3 day workshops that created the adaptive management treatment strategies. Working with the local National Forest or Colorado State Forest, our group was able to secure 400 National Environmental Policy Act ready acres at each site location to implement these experiments. At each site, permanent plots have been established within each of the 25-acre replicated treatments and pretreatment baseline forestry inventory has been collected. 

The Montana site in western larch-mixed conifer is located on the Flathead National Forest and Coram Experimental Forest. The project has already been harvested. Initial post-treatment forestry inventory, understory plant composition, soil Carbon and nutrient cycling will be collected in Summer 2023 and 2024.

The three Colorado sites span three forest types along an elevational gradient on National Forest and State Forests public lands of Colorado. Initial pretreatment forestry inventory has been collected on these sites, but there is a time-sensitive opportunity to expand the pretreatment baseline forestry inventory before harvesting in 2024/25 to include the pretreatment baseline ecosystem health variables being measured at the Montana site. After the Colorado sites are harvested, initial post- treatment measurements will be collected.

Provision holder research interests for 40804(b)(1)

This project aligns with provision holder research interests because it will identify enabling conditions under which partner priorities align with Agency priorities and result in contracts or agreements. This research will leverage existing landscapes/projects ready to implement (i.e. all sites are approved and implementation funded), work with partners to leverage additional sources of investment beyond the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and allocate funds to promote and develop landscape-scale contracts/agreements aimed at restoring ecological health.

Photo Credit

USDA photo by Alexis Neukirch

40804(b)(9): Supporting the National Revegetation Effort

Central to many of the prescriptions developed with stakeholders at the workshops was an element of assisted seedling migration. During the workshop at each site, tree species were chosen by the group to represent a continuum of assisted migration activities including assisted population expansion, assisted range expansion, and species migration of future climate adapted native species. Currently, the Colorado sites are in the process of developing the seedling assisted migration plans, identifying seed sources for collection, and working with both NFS and Colorado State Nursery to secure growing space for the collected seed. This planning has already taken place at the Montana site and planting will begin in Summer 2023 with first year survival and growth measurements to occur in Summer 2024.

Provision holder research interests for 40804(b)(9)

This project will help to identify opportunities to advance a) the Reforestation Strategy for NFS Lands and Non-Federal Lands; b) the National Seed Strategy; and c) Reforestation, Nurseries, and Genetic Resources. Several goals and objectives from the National Reforestation Strategy will be addressed. To understand current and future reforestation needs, our work will help prepare land managers for near-term and future changes driven by climate change and extreme events. This project also addresses the goals of ‘Ensuring Today’s Seedlings Grow Into Tomorrow’s Resilient Forests’ by considering landscape context to determine where and when to establish trees, ensure seedlings have the best chance of survival, and using innovative approaches to scale up reforestation and improve monitoring. Results from this study will inform new seed transfer guidelines for current and projected future environmental conditions and promote research on plant establishment and long-term ecological restoration impacts and outcomes. 

This research will ensure the initial seeding planting has begun for the National Revegetation Strategy by the end of Fiscal Year 2024 at the Montana site. The two Colorado sites with planting will continue to develop and implement the assisted seedling migration plans within the timeframe of the project. Overall, we anticipate approximately 70,000 seedlings to be planted across the Montana site and two Colorado sites within the resilience and transition treatments.

Promoting interdisciplinary science

Our hope is that these robust scientific climate adaptation strategy operational scale projects with baseline pre- and post- treatment data, will attract a range of scientific disciplines to capitalize on the established infrastructure and help augment the information we yield from this important experiment. To ensure the transferability, cross site collaboration, and long-term documentation of pre-and post-treatment data, our group will ensure that data will be archived using the recommended protocols for the USDA Forest Service Research and Development Data Archive.

Objectives 

This project will support operational-scale, on-the-ground replicated research sites of climate change adaptation treatments that sustain the long-term ecological integrity and health of dry and moist mixed conifer, lodgepole pine, and Engelmann spruce-subalpine fir forests. Specifically, this project will:

1.  Contribute to augmenting the pre-treatment measurements as well as the post- treatment response in tree and understory species composition, stand productivity, soil carbon and nutrients, and forest health among three climate change adaptation treatments in each project area, 
2. Develop and implement a seedling planting strategy to test assisted migration as part of the adaptation strategies
3. Provide educational and demonstration areas for natural resource managers and stakeholders on how to develop adaptive management for climate change strategies that can be incorporated into current and future management plans

Expected Project Results 

A. Outputs:

• Establish and archive important baseline pre and post data for a variety of operationally scaled climate adaptation treatments to enhance collaboration and long-term viability of the studies.
• Develop and implement an assisted migration seedling strategy for a variety of Rocky Mountain Forest ecosystems.
• Utilize the Forest Vegetation Simulator, a forest growth simulator used by the Forest Service, to provide possible forest development trajectories under various scenarios that will inform future timber production opportunities and other required intermediate treatments to maintain these treatments.
• Establish a network of demonstration areas and field tours that provide land managers and stakeholders examples of climate adaptation strategies.
• Outreach presentations to local stakeholders, natural resource professionals, and scientists at regional, national, and international engagements through webinars, site visits, and conferences.
• Publish peer-reviewed research articles focused on comparisons of different climate adaptation strategies impacts to a variety of ecosystem processes including tree growth and survival, understory plant diversity, change in site productivity, impacts to soil Carbon and Nitrogen, and the evaluation of natural and artificial regeneration that promote assisted migration.
• Enhance opportunities to engage with students and train future scientists across a range of disciplines on an applied and actionable science project.

B. Expected Outcomes:

• Provide science-based examples that will enable managers to incorporate climate change considerations into their forest management plans and will strengthen the inferences that can be made regarding adaptive management treatments and ecological tradeoffs across Rocky Mountain Forest types.
• Establishment of a long-term co-production relationship with scientists, land managers, and stakeholders.
• Development of demonstration areas for the public, stakeholders, and land managers that will provide educational opportunities for field tours.
• Contribution to the advancement of operationally establishing assisted migration seedling trials and documenting the tradeoffs.

C. Metrics of Success:

Project success will be assessed throughout several milestones and deliverables as the project develops and matures including:

1. Completion of augmented baseline pre-treatment measurements at 3 Colorado sites which includes understory plant composition, soil Carbon and Nitrogen
2. Development of seedling assisted migration planting plan for the Taylor Park and Colorado State Forest ASCC sites
3. Completion of initial post-treatment forest inventory, understory plant composition, surface fuels, soil Carbon and nutrients at Colorado sites
4. Completion of initial assisted migration seedling measurements at Montana ASCC site
5. Completion of Forest Vegetation Simulator simulations that inform forest develop and future management
6. Planting of assisted seedling migration trials at Taylor Park and Colorado State Forest ASCC sites
7. Completion of initial assisted migration seedling measurements at Colorado ASCC sites
8. Recruitment and training of undergraduate and postdoctoral scientists
9. Outreach activities focused on research results and translation to relevant management issues using a variety of techniques including: field tours, webinars, websites, Science You Can Use briefs, and numerous peer-reviewed scientific articles that can aid in future National Environmental Policy Act projects
10. Development of agreements and obligation of funding with external partners

Geographies and High-Risk Landscapes to be Addressed

Colorado

• Federal lands: San Juan National Forest; Grand Mesa, Uncompahgre, and Gunnison National Forest;
• Non-federal lands: Colorado State Forest

Montana

• Federal lands: Flathead National Forest

Similar forest types within the Rocky Mountains Regions 1 and 2 (dry and moist mixed conifer, lodgepole pine, and Engelmann spruce-subalpine fir) across Federal and non-Federal lands.