A time series approach to estimating the economic impacts of exogenous events on a local economy

Abstract

Achieving the economic impacts associated with recreational fishing depends considerably on the maintenance of high-quality fishery resources. As fishing quality declines at a lake, anglers are likely to divert their activity to other water bodies reachable at similar travel cost. In 2001, a series of the abrupt events, namely, an outbreak of harmful algal blooms, occurred at Possum Kingdom Lake in Texas. As various fish populations at the lake were affected and catchability reduced, we sought to estimate the negative impacts of the golden algae events as an illustration of estimating damage assessment. Using a time series intervention analysis, we demonstrated that inserted interventions had negative economic impacts. The intervention time series method provided a useful tool for analyzing the influence of external events on various time series of interest. Further, other approaches were suggested for monitoring recreational fishing activity and understanding related economic impacts at recreational fishing lakes.

Parent Publication

• Proceedings of the 2006 Northeastern Recreation Research Symposium

Citation

Oh, Chi-Ok; Ditton, Robert B. 2007. A time series approach to estimating the economic impacts of exogenous events on a local economy. In: Burns, R.; Robinson, K., comps. Proceedings of the 2006 Northeastern Recreation Research Symposium; 2006 April 9-11; Bolton Landing, NY. Gen. Tech. Rep. NRS-P-14. Newtown Square, PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station: 240-247.