Predicting the potential future distribution of four tree species in Ohio using current habitat availability and climatic forcing

Mark W. Schwartz; Louis Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad

doi:10.1007/s10021-001-0030-3

Treesearch

Predicting the potential future distribution of four tree species in Ohio using current habitat availability and climatic forcing

Informally Refereed

Authors:

Mark W. Schwartz, Louis Iverson, Anantha M. Prasad

Year:

2001

Type:

Scientific Journal

Station:

Northern Research Station

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-001-0030-3

Source:

Ecosystems. 4: 568-581.

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Download (PDF 1.20 MB): https://research.fs.usda.gov/download/treesearch/13417.pdf

Abstract

We investigated the effect of habitat loss on the ability of trees to shift in distribution across a landscape dominated by agriculture. The potential distribution shifts of four tree species (Diospyros virginiana, Oxydendron arboreum, Pinus virginiana, Quercus falcata var. falcata) whose northern distribution limits fall in the southern third of Ohio were used to assess possible distribution shift scenarios as a result of global warming. Our predictions derive from the results of simulations using (a) forest inventory based estimates of current distribution and abundance of target species; (b) a satellite-based estimate of forest habitat availability; and (c) a tree migration model (SHIFT).

Keywords

migration, climate change, trees, oak, pine, distribution, habitat loss

Citation

Schwartz, Mark W.; Iverson, Louis R.; Prasad, Anantha M. 2001. Predicting the potential future distribution of four tree species in Ohio using current habitat availability and climatic forcing. Ecosystems. 4: 568-581.