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Abstract
Prediction of phenology is an important component of most pest management programs, and considerable research effort has been expended toward development of predictive tools for gypsy moth phenology. Although phenological prediction is potentially valuable for timing of spray applications (e.g. Bt, or Gypcheck) and other management activities (e.g. placement and removal of pheromone traps), we have had a difficult time effectively conceptualizing phenology prediction in GypsES. We have come to the realization that difficulties in representing phenology over a complex topographic landscape, such as is typical of many gypsy moth control areas, lies at the heart of the problem. Our current approach to phenological prediction, therefore, has two goals (1) representation of the complex landscape expression of gypsy moth phenology, and (2) reduction (or aggregation) of this complexity to a form that is useful in the management decision process. To meet these two goals, the problem of phenological representation falls into two catagories, Strategic Planning and Tactical Implementation.
Parent Publication
Citation
Logan, Jesse A.; Schaub, Lukas P.; Ravlin, F. William. 1991. Phenology prediction component of GypsES. IN: Gottschalk, Kurt W.; Twery, Mark J.; Smith, Shirley I., eds. Proceedings, U.S. Department of Agriculture interagency gypsy moth research review 1990; East Windsor, CT. Gen. Tech. Rep. NE-146. Radnor, PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northeastern Forest Experiment Station. 59-60.
