Download (PDF 860 KB): https://research.fs.usda.gov/download/treesearch/15670.pdf
Abstract
A stochastic model of oak flower dynamics is presented that integrates a number of factors which appear to affect the oak pistillate flower development process. The factors are modeled such that the distribution of the predicted flower populations could have come from the same distribution as the observed flower populations. Factors included in the model are; the range of peak crop intervals, relative humidity in the pollination period (Wolgast 1972), number of severe storms (Cecich 1997), tree hopper (Kopp and Yonke 1973a, 1973b) and acorn weevil population (Gibson 1964), genetic factors related to the fertilization process, and summer drought (Sork and Bramble 1993). We propose this probabilistic model as a research tool to explore how the included factors affect acorn production. Because the model uses distributions similar to those obtained from bootstrap analysis of the observed data, realizations of the model are generated using a stochastic modeling methodology and then summarized for presentation. With this methodology, the output will be drawn from the distributions similar to the original data and fit statistics are relatively meaningless.
Citation
Larsen, David R.; Cecich, Robert A. 1997. Model of white oak flower survival and maturation. In: Pallardy, Stephen G.; Cecich, Robert A.; Garrett, H. Gene; Johnson, Paul S., eds. Proceedings of the 11th Central Hardwood Forest Conference; Gen. Tech. Rep. NC-188. St. Paul, MN: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, North Central Forest Experiment Station: 262-268
