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Abstract
Long-term monitoring followed by mathematical modeling was used to describe the population dynamics of the green oak leaf roller
Tortrix viridana L. over a period of 30 years and to study reactions of oak stands to different levels of defoliation. The mathematical model allows us to forecast the population dynamics of the green oak leaf roller and main characteristics of its development: survival, fecundity, and propagation coefficient. The model demonstrated that oak stands in various sites differ in their response to severe defoliation. The responses of absorbing roots of damaged trees are most intense after the first year of damage and decrease gradually if subsequent defoliation occurs. The analysis of weather characteristics over 50 years revealed that the hydro-thermic coefficient of growing seasons increased 1.7 times during the last 30 years; this may be favorable for oak stands growing in the observed region.
Parent Publication
Citation
Rubtsov, V. V.; Utkina, I. A. 2003. Interrelations of green oak leaf roller population and common oak: results of 30-year monitoring and mathematical modeling. In: McManus, Michael L.; Liebhold, Andrew M., eds. Proceedings: Ecology, Survey and Management of Forest Insects; 2002 September 1-5; Krakow, Poland. Gen. Tech. Rep. NE-311. Newtown Square, PA: U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northeastern Research Station. 90-97.
