Forecasting outbreaks of the Douglas-fir tussock moth from lower crown cocoon samples.

Richard R. Mason; Donald Scott; H. Gene Paul

doi:10.2737/PNW-RP-460

Treesearch

Forecasting outbreaks of the Douglas-fir tussock moth from lower crown cocoon samples.

Informally Refereed

Authors:

Richard R. Mason, Donald Scott, H. Gene Paul

Year:

1993

Type:

Research Paper

Station:

Pacific Northwest Research Station

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.2737/PNW-RP-460

Source:

Res. Pap. PNW-RP-460. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 12 p

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Abstract

A predictive technique using a simple linear regression was developed to forecast the midcrown density of small tussock moth larvae from estimates of cocoon density in the previous generation. The regression estimator was derived from field samples of cocoons and larvae taken from a wide range of nonoutbreak tussock moth populations. The accuracy of the predictions was demonstrated on an operational basis in an independent tussock moth outbreak.

Keywords

Predicting insect populations, insect outbreaks, sampling insects, Douglas-fir tussock moth, Orgyia pseudotsugata

Citation

Mason, Richard R.; Scott, Donald W.; Paul, H. Gene. 1993. Forecasting outbreaks of the Douglas-fir tussock moth from lower crown cocoon samples. Res. Pap. PNW-RP-460. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 12 p