Considerations for interpreting probabilistic estimates of uncertainty of forest carbon

Abstract

Quantitative estimated of carbon inventories are needed as part of nationwide attempts to reduce net release of greenhouse gases and the associated climate forcing. Naturally, an appreciable amount of uncertainty is inherent in such large-scale assessments, especially since both science and policy issues are still evolving. Decision makers need an idea of the uncertainty in carbon estimated in order to consider tradeoffs between known effects, possible outcomes, and preferred consequences. While an ultimate goal of assessments in to minimize uncertainty, a more immediate concern is to adequately quantify existing uncertainty. The goal of this chapter is to present some useful considerations for the interpretation and subsequent use of information from probabilistic assessments of uncertainty.

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Citation

Smith, James E.; Heath, Linda S. 2000. Considerations for interpreting probabilistic estimates of uncertainty of forest carbon. In: Joyce, Linda A.; Birdsey, Richard, technical editors. 2000. The impact of climate change on America''s forests: a technical document supporting the 2000 USDA Forest Service RPA Assessment. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-59. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. p. 102-111