Assessing the accuracy of wildland fire situation analysis (WFSA) fire size and suppression cost estimates.

Geoffrey Donovan; Peter Noordijk

Treesearch

Assessing the accuracy of wildland fire situation analysis (WFSA) fire size and suppression cost estimates.

Informally Refereed

Authors:

Geoffrey Donovan, Peter Noordijk

Year:

2005

Type:

Scientific Journal

Station:

Pacific Northwest Research Station

Source:

Journal of Forestry. January/February: 10-13

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Abstract

To determine the optimal suppression strategy for escaped wildfires, federal land managers are requiredto conduct a wildland fire situation analysis (WFSA). As part of the WFSA process, fire managers estimate final fire size and suppression costs. Estimates from 58 WFSAs conducted during the 2002 fire season are compared to actual outcomes. Results indicate that estimates of fire size and suppression costs are systematically biased. Modifications to the WFSA process are suggested to address these problems.

Keywords

WFSA, wildfire, economics, suppression, probability

Citation

Donovan, Geoffrey H.; Noordijk, Peter. 2005. Assessing the accuracy of wildland fire situation analysis (WFSA) fire size and suppression cost estimates. Journal of Forestry. January/February: 10-13