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Treesearch

Prediction errors in wildland fire situation analyses.

Informally Refereed
Download (PDF 179 KB): https://research.fs.usda.gov/download/treesearch/23601.pdf

Abstract

Wildfires consume budgets and put the heat on fire managers to justify and control suppression costs. To determine the appropriate suppression strategy, land managers must conduct a wildland fire situation analysis (WFSA) when: A wildland fire is expected to or does escape initial attack, A wildland fire managed for resource benefits exceeds prescription parameters, or A prescribed fire exceeds its prescription and is declared a wildfire.

On large wildfires, land managers sometimes conduct five or more WFSAs.

Citation

Donovan, Geoffrey H.; Noordijk, Peter. 2005. Prediction errors in wildland fire situation analyses. Fire Management Today. 65(2): 25-27