Forecasting gypsy moth egg-mass density

Abstract

Several multiple regression models for gypsy moth egg-mass density were developed from data accumulated in eastern New England between 1911 and 1931. Analysis of these models indicates that: (1) The gypsy moth population system was relatively stable in either the OUTBREAK phase or the INNOCUOUS one; (2) Several naturally occurring processes that could terminate the OUTBREAK phase are represented by the models, but they do not indicate mechanisms sufficient to change the system from the INNOCUOUS phase to the OUTBREAK one. Some of the implications arising from the above conclusions are discussed.

Citation

Campbell, Robert W. 1973. Forecasting gypsy moth egg-mass density. Res. Pap. NE-268. Upper Darby, PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northeastern Forest Experiment Station. 19 p.