National forest timber supply and stumpage markets in the western United States.

Darius M. Adams; Richard Haynes

doi:10.2737/PNW-RP-435

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National forest timber supply and stumpage markets in the western United States.

Informally Refereed

Authors:

Darius M. Adams, Richard Haynes

Year:

1991

Type:

Research Paper

Station:

Pacific Northwest Research Station

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.2737/PNW-RP-435

Source:

Res. Pap. PNW-RP-435. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 61 p

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Download (PDF 3.42 MB): https://research.fs.usda.gov/download/treesearch/25645.pdf

Abstract

This paper presents an aggregate regional model of the National Forest timber supply process and the interaction of National Forest and non-National Forest supply in determining regional stumpage prices and harvest volumes. Model simulations track actual behavior in the Douglas-fir regional stumpage market with reasonable accuracy; projections for the next two decades suggest that little real appreciation in stumpage prices will occur, that cut and bid prices will fluctuate around each other, and that the ratio of uncut volume to sold volume will gradually decline and stabilize at somewhat lower levels than were observed during the 1960s and 1970s.

Keywords

market model, timber supply, National Forest timber sales, bidding, forecasting, econometrics

Citation

Adams, Darius M.; Haynes, Richard W. 1991. National forest timber supply and stumpage markets in the western United States. Res. Pap. PNW-RP-435. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 61 p