Climate-host mapping of Phytophthora ramorum, causal agent of sudden oak death

Abstract

Phytophthora ramorum infection was modeled using the NAPPFAST system for the conterminous United States. Parameters used to model P. ramorum infection were: leaf wetness, minimum temperature, optimum temperature and maximum temperature over a specified number of accumulated days. The model was used to create maps showing the frequency of favorable years for infection and these were compared with historical P. ramorum observations from California. The majority of historical observations were located in the greater than 90 percent favorable zone using 10 year climate data. Climate risk areas for P. ramorum were then overlaid with hardwood forest density to generate a preliminary composite map that was demarcated based on the degree of climate match and hardwood forest density. These maps are designed to improve the efficacy and economy of survey and detection activities for P. ramorum by federal, state and local regulatory agencies. Work is in progress to create international climate risk maps using a daily data set that is temporally and spatially interpolated from the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) data set.

Parent Publication

• Proceedings of the sudden oak death second science symposium: the state of our knowledge

Citation

Fowler, Glenn; Magarey, Roger; Colunga, Manuel. 2006. Climate-host mapping of Phytophthora ramorum, causal agent of sudden oak death. In: Frankel, Susan J.; Shea, Patrick J.; and Haverty, Michael I., tech. coords. Proceedings of the sudden oak death second science symposium: the state of our knowledge. Gen. Tech. Rep. PSW-GTR-196. Albany, CA: Pacific Southwest Research Station, Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture: 329-332