Constrained range expansion and climate change assessments

Abstract

Modeling the future distribution of keystone species has proved to be an important approach to assessing the potential ecological consequences of climate change (Loehle and LeBlanc 1996; Hansen et al. 2001). Predictions of range shifts are typically based on empirical models derived from simple correlative relationships between climatic characteristics of occupied and unoccupied sites (Pearson and Dawson 2003; Scheffer et al. 2005). Using such models to predict species response to climate change assumes that climate exerts a major, if not the dominant, control on where species occur across a region (Scheffer et al. 2005). Although this assumption is often accompanied by the recognition that other factors (eg interspecific interactions, dispersal barriers, population adaptation) can affect future distributions (Loehle and LeBlanc 1996), it is rare to see an examination of how predicted species responses may change if factors other than climate are important in shaping future distributions.

Citation

Carmel, Yohay; Flather, Curtis H. 2006. Constrained range expansion and climate change assessments. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. 4:178-­179.