Economic efficiency and risk character of fire management programs, Northern Rocky Mountains

Thomas J. Mills; Frederick W. Bratten

doi:10.2737/PSW-RP-192

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Economic efficiency and risk character of fire management programs, Northern Rocky Mountains

Informally Refereed

Authors:

Thomas J. Mills, Frederick W. Bratten

Year:

1988

Type:

Research Paper

Station:

Pacific Southwest Research Station

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.2737/PSW-RP-192

Source:

Res. Pap. PSW-RP-192. Albany, CA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station. 58 p

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Abstract

Economic efficiency and risk have long been considered during the selection of fire management programs and the design of fire management polices. The risk considerations was largely subjective, however, and efficiency has only recently been calculated for selected portions of the fire management program. The highly stochastic behavior of the fire system and the high degree of interaction among its components make it difficult to model analytically. Without fairly advance quantitative models, estimating the risk and efficiency consequences of fire management alternative was impossible.

Keywords

cost plus net value change, fire behavior, fuel treatments, initial attack, fire suppression, fire effects, resource values, probability modeling, risk analysis

Citation

Mills, Thomas J.; Bratten, Frederick W. 1988. Economic efficiency and risk character of fire management programs, Northern Rocky Mountains. Res. Pap. PSW-RP-192. Albany, CA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Forest and Range Experiment Station. 58 p.