Guidelines for developing and updating Bayesian belief networks applied to ecological modeling and conservation.

Abstract

We provide practical guidelines for developing, testing, and revising Bayesian belief networks (BBNs). Primary steps in this process include creating influence diagrams of the hypothesized "causal web" of key factors affecting a species or ecological outcome of interest; developing a first, alpha-level BBN model from the influence diagram; revising the model after expert review; testing and calibrating the model with case files to create a beta-level model; and updating the model structure and conditional probabilities with new validation data, creating the final-application gamma-level model. We illustrate and discuss these steps with an empirically based BBN model of factors influencing probability of capture of northern flying squirrels (Glaucomys sabrinus (Shaw)).

Citation

Marcot, B.G.; Steventon, J.D.; Sutherland, G.D.; McCann, R.K. 2006. Guidelines for developing and updating Bayesian belief networks applied to ecological modeling and conservation. Canadian Journal of Forest Research. 36: 3063-3074