Probability fire weather forecasts .. show promise in 3-year trial

Paul G. Scowcroft

Treesearch

Probability fire weather forecasts .. show promise in 3-year trial

Informally Refereed

Authors:

Paul G. Scowcroft

Year:

1970

Type:

Research Note

Station:

Pacific Southwest Research Station

Source:

Res. Note PSW-RN-201. Berkeley, CA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Forest and Range Experiment Station. 6 p

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Download (PDF 782 KB): https://research.fs.usda.gov/download/treesearch/31215.pdf

Abstract

Probability fire weather forecasts were compared with categorical and climatological forecasts in a trial in southern California during the 1965-1967 fire seasons. Equations were developed to express the reliability of forecasts and degree of skill shown by the forecaster. Evaluation of 336 daily reports suggests that probability forecasts were more reliable. For probability forecasting to be used operationally, fire weather forecasters will need help in the necessary computations and some decision criteria for planning.

Keywords

fire weather, weather forecasting, mathematical expectation

Citation

Scowcroft, Paul G. 1970. Probability fire weather forecasts .. show promise in 3-year trial. Res. Note PSW-RN-201. Berkeley, CA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Forest and Range Experiment Station. 6 p