Modeling future plant distributions on the Colorado Plateau: An example using Pinus edulis

Abstract

The recent mortality of some plant species in the U.S. Southwest has been attributed to the ongoing drought conditions over the last decade. This mortality has been especially acute in populations of Pinus edulis (Colorado pinyon pine; hereafter abbreviated as pinyon), a widespread and highly visible species (Shaw 2006; Shaw et al. 2005; Mueller et al. 2005). These recent mortality events may be similar to changes expected to occur in the future because of global climate warming (Breshears et al. 2005). That is, the consequences of periodic episodes of low precipitation can be exacerbated by higher temperatures, which increase drought stress. Here we demonstrate new techniques for modeling the effect of future climates on plant species using pinyon as an example. Using the techniques described here, similar results could be generated for any plant species or for any climatically controlled environmental process.

Citation

Cole, Kenneth L.; Ironside, Kirsten E.; Arundel, Samantha T.; Duffy, Philip; Shaw, John. 2008. Modeling future plant distributions on the Colorado Plateau: An example using Pinus edulis. In: van Riper, C. III; Sogge, M. K., eds. The Colorado Plateau III. Integrating Research and Resources Management for Effective Conservation. Tucson, AZ: The University of Arizona Press. p. 319-330.