Florida wildfire activity and atmospheric teleconnections

Abstract

Since 1991, the Florida Division of Forestry has been making seasonal fire severity forecasts based on arelationship between area burned in Florida and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The present study extends theoriginal analysis on which these forecasts are based and attempts to augment it with the addition of other patterns ofclimate variability. Two atmospheric teleconnection patterns, the North Atlantic Oscillation and Pacific–North Americanpattern, are examined as potential indicators of seasonal and monthly area burned in Florida. Although ENSO was the onlyclimate index to show a significant correlation to area burned in Florida, the Pacific–North American pattern (PNA) isshown to be a factor influencing fire season severity although the relationship is not monotonic and therefore not revealedby correlation analysis.

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