Modeling natural regeneration establishment in the northern Rocky Mountains of the U.S.A

Abstract

Retrospective examination of cutover forests enables the development of models that predict regeneration success as a function of plot conditions and time since disturbance. The modeling process uses a two-state system. In the first state, all plots are analyzed to predict the probability of stocking (at least one established seedling on the plot). In the second state, only stocked plots are analyzed to predict seedling density, species composition, and seedling heights. Outcomes are predicted on a plot basis; therefore, the model is sensitive to variation within the stand. Predictions are then summarized to an area basis. The independent variables used to predict regeneration success are commonly recorded in forest inventories. Study design, model development, model predictions, and model updates are discussed.

Citation

Ferguson, D. E. 1996. Modeling natural regeneration establishment in the northern Rocky Mountains of the U.S.A. In: Skovsgaard, J. P.; Johannsen, V. K., eds. Modelling regeneration success and early growth of forest stands: Proceedings from the IUFRO Conference; 10-13 June, 1996; Copenhagen, Denmark. Horsholm, Denmark: Danish Forest and Landscape Research Institute. p. 30-40.