Modeling aspen responses to climatic warming and insect defoliation in western Canada

Abstract

Effects of climate change at three aspen sites in Saskatchewan were explored using a climate-driven model that includes insect defoliation. A simulated warming of 4-5 °C caused complete mortality due to drought at all three sites. A simulated warming of 2-2.5 °C caused complete mortality of aspen at the parkland site, while aspen growth at two boreal sites showed little change from the present climate until after insect defoliation, when dieback was more severe under the warmer climate. The results suggest that future impacts of climate change on boreal aspen forests may not become evident until after major insect outbreaks have occurred.

Parent Publication

• Sustaining aspen in western landscapes: Symposium proceedings; 13-15 June 2000; Grand Junction, CO

Citation

Hogg, E. H. Ted. 2001. Modeling aspen responses to climatic warming and insect defoliation in western Canada. In: Shepperd, Wayne D.; Binkley, Dan; Bartos, Dale L.; Stohlgren, Thomas J.; Eskew, Lane G., comps. Sustaining aspen in western landscapes: Symposium proceedings; 13-15 June 2000; Grand Junction, CO. Proceedings RMRS-P-18. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. p. 325-338.