From vegetation zones to climatypes: Effects of climate warming on Siberian ecosystems

Abstract

Evidence for global warming over the past 200 years is overwhelming, based on both direct weather observation and indirect physical and biological indicators such as retreating glaciers and snow/ice cover, increasing sea level, and longer growing seasons (IPCC 2001, 2007). On the background of global warming at a rate of 0.6°C during the twentieth century (IPCC 2001), the temperature increase in central Siberia is registered as large as 1-2°C on average for both in summer and winter in the high latitudes, and up to 2-5°C in winter alone in the south (Tchebakova and Parfenova 2006). Recent GCM projections of the Hadley Center (Gordon et al. 2000) for Central Siberia show an increase in temperature of 4-6°C in summer and 2-9°C in winter; an increase in precipitation is shown as much as 30% by 2090. In the south of Central Siberia, January temperature increases by 2000 have already exceeded those predicted by the Hadley Center scenario for 2090. July temperature increase rates for 2000 are of the same order of magnitude as predicted from scenarios 4-6°C for 100 years. Predicted change in rainfall is positive while registered change has been negative (Tchebakova et al. 2008). Predicted changes, moreover, could occur at a rate of 0.1-0.4°C per decade (Watson et al. 1996).

Citation

Tchebakova, N. M.; Rehfeldt, G. E.; Parfenova, E. I. 2010. From vegetation zones to climatypes: Effects of climate warming on Siberian ecosystems. In: Osawa, Akira; Zyryanova, Olga A.; Matsuura, Yojiro; Kajimoto, Takuya; Wein, Ross W., eds. Permafrost ecosystems: Siberian larch forests. Ecological Studies. 209: 427-446.