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Abstract
Species distribution models (SDMs) predict that whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) will lose much of its current climatic range in Cascadia (the Pacific Northwest in the United States plus British Columbia, Canada) by the 2080s as the climate warms. However, the same models indicate that the species will simultaneously gain a large, climatically-favorable habitat expanse northwest of its current northern range limit. While SDMs are one of the best tools available for predicting range shifts under climate change, their shortcomings, particularly for threatened species like whitebark pine, must be tested and accounted for prior to their use in conservation planning. The potential for whitebark pine to independently migrate northward, and the management option of assisting its migration should natural dispersal not suffice, must also be assessed.
Parent Publication
Keywords
high elevation five-needle pines,
threats,
whitebark,
Pinus albicaulis,
limber,
Pinus flexilis,
southwestern white,
Pinus strobiformis,
foxtail,
Pinus balfouriana,
Great Basin bristlecone,
Pinus longaeva,
Rocky Mountain bristlecone pine,
Pinus aristata
Citation
McLane, Sierra C. 2011. Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) in Cascadia: A climate change prognosis. In: Keane, Robert E.; Tomback, Diana F.; Murray, Michael P.; Smith, Cyndi M., eds. The future of high-elevation, five-needle white pines in Western North America: Proceedings of the High Five Symposium. 28-30 June 2010; Missoula, MT. Proceedings RMRS-P-63. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. p. 206.
