A safe operating space for humanity

Johan Rockström; Will Steffen; Kevin Noone; Asa Persson; F. Stuart Chapin; Eric F. Lambin; Timothy M. Lenton; Marten Scheffer; Carl Folke; Hans Joachim Schellnhuber; Björn Nykvist; Cynthia A. de Wit; Terry Hughes; Sander van der Leeuw; Henning Rodhe; Sverker Sörlin; Peter K. Snyder; Robert Costanza; Uno Svedin; Malin Falkenmark; Louise Karlberg; Robert W. Corell; Victoria J. Fabry; James Hansen; Brian Walker; Diana Liverman; Katherine Richardson; Paul Crutzen; Jonathan A. Foley

Treesearch

A safe operating space for humanity

Formally Refereed

Authors:

Johan Rockström, Will Steffen, Kevin Noone, Asa Persson, F. Stuart Chapin, Eric F. Lambin, Timothy M. Lenton, Marten Scheffer, Carl Folke, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Björn Nykvist, Cynthia A. de Wit, Terry Hughes, Sander van der Leeuw, Henning Rodhe, Sverker Sörlin, Peter K. Snyder, Robert Costanza, Uno Svedin, Malin Falkenmark, Louise Karlberg, Robert W. Corell, Victoria J. Fabry, James Hansen, Brian Walker, Diana Liverman, Katherine Richardson, Paul Crutzen, Jonathan A. Foley

Year:

2009

Type:

Scientific Journal

Station:

Pacific Northwest Research Station

Source:

Nature. 461: 472-475

Download (PDF 1.47 MB)

Download (PDF 1.47 MB): https://research.fs.usda.gov/download/treesearch/39051.pdf

Abstract

To meet the challenge of maintaining the Holocene state, we propose a framework based on 'planetary boundaries'. These boundaries define the safe operating space for humanity with respect to the Earth system and are associated with the planet's biophysical subsystems or processes. Although Earth's complex systems sometimes respond smoothly to changing pressures, it seems that this will prove to be the exception rather than the rule. Many subsystems of Earth react in a nonlinear, often abrupt, way, and are particularly sensitive around threshold levels of certain key variables. If these thresholds are crossed, then important subsystems, such as a monsoon system, could shift into a new state, often with deleterious or potentially even disastrous consequences for humans.

Keywords

development, threshold, land use, global change

Citation

Rockström, Johan; Steffen, Will; Noone, Kevin; Persson, Asa; Chapin, F. Stuart, III; Lambin, Eric F.; Lenton, Timothy M.; Scheffer, Marten; Folke, Carl; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim; Nykvist, Björn; de Wit, Cynthia A.; Hughes, Terry; van der Leeuw, Sander; Rodhe, Henning; Sörlin, Sverker; Snyder, Peter K.; Costanza, Robert; Svedin, Uno; Falkenmark, Malin; Karlberg, Louise; Corell, Robert W.; Fabry, Victoria J.; Hansen, James; Walker, Brian; Liverman, Diana; Richardson, Katherine; Crutzen, Paul; Foley, Jonathan A. 2009. A safe operating space for humanity. Nature. 461: 472-475.