Decision modeling for fire incident analysis

Abstract

This paper reports on methods for representing and modeling fire incidents based on concepts and models from the decision and risk sciences. A set of modeling techniques are used to characterize key fire management decision processes and provide a basis for incident analysis. The results of these methods can be used to provide insights into the structure of fire management decision making, including key decision drivers and influences. The methods are applied to two fire incidents to illustrate the various phases of fire management decision making. Both applications identify critical decision points that influenced incident outcomes, including (a) the importance of "worst-case" analysis and scenario generation, (b) accessibility and usability of local fire management knowledge, (c) effects of individual differences in IA/EA decision making, and (d) discontinuities in fire management decision processes.

Parent Publication

• Proceedings of the third international symposium on fire economics, planning, and policy: common problems and approaches

Citation

MacGregor, Donald G.; González-Cabán, Armando. 2009. Decision modeling for fire incident analysis. Proceedings of the third international symposium on fire economics, planning, and policy: common problems and approaches. Gen. Tech. Rep. PSW-GTR-227 (English). Albany, CA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station. pp. 296-303.