Modeling fire behavior on tropical islands with high-resolution weather data

Abstract

In this study, we consider fire behavior simulation in tropical island scenarios such as Hawaii and Puerto Rico. The development of a system to provide real-time fire behavior prediction in Hawaii is discussed. This involves obtaining fuels and topography information at a fine scale, as well as supplying daily high-resolution weather forecast data for the area of interest. FARSITE, the fire simulation program we use, works with the fuel models commonly found in the contiguous United States, so vegetation found on an island needs to be mapped to fuel models accordingly. We examine a specific fire incident in detail, looking at how well it can be modeled given output from the system under development. Analysis of such examples can help in fire behavior prediction system calibration for real-time use. There are several potential causes of error between simulated and actual fire perimeter. Different methods of eliminating this error and improving accuracy of the simulation are considered. Finally, we discuss further work and challenges once a developing fire behavior prediction system becomes operational.

Parent Publication

• Proceedings of the third international symposium on fire economics, planning, and policy: common problems and approaches

Citation

Benoit, John W.; Fujioka, Francis M.; Weise, David R. 2009. Modeling fire behavior on tropical islands with high-resolution weather data. In: González-Cabán, Armando. 2009. Proceedings of the third international symposium on fire economics, planning, and policy: common problems and approaches. Gen. Tech. Rep. PSW-GTR-227 (English). Albany, CA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station. pp. 321-330.