Using the Large Fire Simulator System to map wildland fire potential for the conterminous United States

LaWen Hollingsworth; James Menakis

Treesearch

Using the Large Fire Simulator System to map wildland fire potential for the conterminous United States

Informally Refereed

Authors:

LaWen Hollingsworth, James Menakis

Year:

2010

Type:

Miscellaneous Publication

Station:

Rocky Mountain Research Station

Source:

In: Wade, Dale D.; Robinson, Mikel L., eds. Proceedings of 3rd Fire Behavior and Fuels Conference; 25-29 October 2010; Spokane, WA. Birmingham, AL: International Association of Wildland Fire. 1 p.

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Abstract

This project mapped wildland fire potential (WFP) for the conterminous United States by using the large fire simulation system developed for Fire Program Analysis (FPA) System. The large fire simulation system, referred to here as LFSim, consists of modules for weather generation, fire occurrence, fire suppression, and fire growth modeling. Weather was generated with daily, seasonal, and spatial variation from numerous weather stations around the United States that contain records for 1 to 3 decades. Large fire occurrence probabilities were calculated by logistic regression based on historical data. Fire suppression is represented by a statistical model based on historic large fire records from 2000-2005. Fire growth was calculated using a minimum travel time algorithm. Outputs from LFSim include a burn probability and a conditional probability of flame lengths for six classes (0-2, 2-4, 4-6, 6-8, 8-12, and greater than 12 feet) at a 270 square meter cell size for the conterminous United States (CONUS).

Keywords

wildland fire, LFSim

Citation

Hollingsworth, LaWen; Menakis, James. 2010. Using the Large Fire Simulator System to map wildland fire potential for the conterminous United States. In: Wade, Dale D.; Robinson, Mikel L., eds. Proceedings of 3rd Fire Behavior and Fuels Conference; 25-29 October 2010; Spokane, WA. Birmingham, AL: International Association of Wildland Fire. 1 p.