Modeling and predicting vegetation response of western USA grasslands, shrublands, and deserts to climate change (Chapter 1)

Abstract

Experimental research and species distribution modeling predict large changes in the distributions of species and vegetation types in the Interior West due to climate change. Species’ responses will depend not only on their physiological tolerances but also on their phenology, establishment properties, biotic interactions, and capacity to evolve and migrate. Because individual species respond to climate variation and change independently and differently, plant assemblages with no modern analogs can be expected in areas where novel climate conditions develop. The capacity to accurately predict how species distributions and plant assemblages will change under future warming is essential for developing effective strategies for maintaining and restoring sustainable ecosystems.

Parent Publication

• Climate change in grasslands, shrublands, and deserts of the interior American West: a review and needs assessment

Citation

Friggens, Megan M.; Warwell, Marcus V.; Chambers, Jeanne C.; Kitchen, Stanley G. 2012. Modeling and predicting vegetation response of western USA grasslands, shrublands, and deserts to climate change (Chapter 1). In: Finch, Deborah M., ed. Climate change in grasslands, shrublands, and deserts of the interior American West: a review and needs assessment. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-285. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. p. 1-20.