Experimental weekly to seasonal U.S. forecasts with the Regional Spectral Model

Abstract

As described previously Roads et al. 2001a, hereafter RCF), the Scripps Experimental Climate Prediction Center (ECPC) has been making routine, near-real-time, long-range experimental global and regional dynamical forecasts since 27 September 1997. The global spectral model (GSM) used for these forecasts is that of National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s (NCEP; Kalnay et al. 1996; see also Roads et al. 1999) used for the NCEP–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis. The initial conditions and SST boundary conditions for these experimental GSM forecasts come from the NCEP Global Data Assimilation (GDAS) 0000 UTC operational analysis, which is available to interested researchers, almost without fail, every day in near–real time on NCEP rotating disk archives. Transforming NCEP’s higher-resolution operational global analyses to lower (vertical and horizontal) resolution initial conditions for the GSM, 7-day global forecasts are made every day, and every weekend these GSM forecasts are extended to 16 weeks. RCF (see also Roads et al. 2001b; Chen et al. 2001; Roads and Brenner 2002; Roads and Chen 2003) provided a preliminary evaluation of the 12-week forecast capability of the GSM for many regions for the first 2 yr. and indicated that there were places and times when the GSM 12-week forecasts of many relevant geophysical variables were skillful.

Citation

Roads, J. 2004. Experimental weekly to seasonal US forecasts with the Regional Spectral Model. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 85(12): 1887-1902.