An approach to the future

Peter C. Bishop

Treesearch

An approach to the future

Informally Refereed

Authors:

Peter C. Bishop

Year:

2012

Type:

Proceedings - Paper

Station:

Northern Research Station

Source:

In: Bengston, David N., comp. 2012. Environmental futures research: experiences, approaches, and opportunities. Gen. Tech. Rep. NRS-P-107. Newtown Square, PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station: 13-17.

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Abstract

This paper describes the rudiments of an approach to the future that we should teach and practice in our personal and professional lives. It begins with a consideration of change. The future is about change. If there were no change, we would have no reason to pay attention to the future. The paper concludes with an approach to long-term forecasting that takes uncertainty seriously. The result is a set of plausible futures for which we must be ready; otherwise, we run the risk of being surprised—or worse.

Parent Publication

Environmental futures research: experiences, approaches, and opportunities

Keywords

strategic foresight, scenarios, trends, forecasting, change, environmental scanning

Citation

Bishop, Peter C. 2012. An approach to the future. In: Bengston, David N., comp. 2012. Environmental futures research: experiences, approaches, and opportunities. Gen. Tech. Rep. NRS-P-107. Newtown Square, PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station: 13-17.