A framework for developing foresight in natural resource management

Abstract

This paper describes a fundamental framework for anticipating and influencing the future that has been used to prepare professional futurists at the University of Houston for more than 35 years. The overview of the framework addresses how futures researchers organize information about changes in the world (e.g., by defining the domain, or scope, of the forecasting topic and identifying drivers of future change). Specific techniques to develop foresight, including environmental scanning and trend analysis, are discussed. The paper summarizes the three kinds of futures typically explored: the probable future, plausible alternatives, and preferable futures, whether centered on individuals, organizations, or society at large. Plausible futures are among many aspects of futures forecasting where scenarios can be used. Definitions and descriptions of scenarios are provided. Th e process of developing scenarios is illustrated, and their purpose in the forecasting framework is presented.

Parent Publication

• Environmental futures research: experiences, approaches, and opportunities

Citation

Strong, Kay E. 2012. A Framework for developing foresight in natural resource management. In: Bengston, David N., comp. 2012. Environmental futures research: experiences, approaches, and opportunities. Gen. Tech. Rep. NRS-P-107. Newtown Square, PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station: 18-24.