Effects on U.S. Timber Outlook of Recent Economic Recession, Collapse in Housing Construction, and Wood Energy Trends

Abstract

This paper reviews recent trends and structural changes in U.S. forest product markets and projects their effects on the long-range U.S. timber market outlook. The analysis derives from the same U.S. and global economic model that produced 50-year projections for the 2010 RPA nationwide forest assessment, but analysis is revised to more accurately include the economic recession of 2007–2009, the collapse in U.S. housing construction since 2005, and expected growth in wood energy consumption. The analysis uses the 2012 USDA Baseline global macroeconomic and currency exchange rate outlook, along with a revised U.S. housing projection. Results provide a coherent 2012 baseline outlook to 2060 that takes into account recent market trends and includes a rebound in U.S. timber harvest and higher net exports but only modest expansion in timber harvest over the long run, resulting in only modest increases in real timber stumpage prices and expanding U.S. timber growing stock inventories.

Citation

Ince, Peter J.; Nepal, Prakash. 2012. Effects on U.S. timber outlook of recent economic recession, collapse in housing construction, and wood energy trends. Gen. Tech. Rept. FPL-GTR-219. Madison, WI: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Forest Products Laboratory. 18 p.