Forecasting timber, biomass, and tree carbon pools with the output of state and transition models

Abstract

The Integrated Landscape Assessment Project (ILAP) uses spatial vegetation data and state and transition models (STM) to forecast future vegetation conditions and the interacting effects of natural disturbances and management activities. Results from ILAP will help land managers, planners, and policymakers evaluate management strategies that reduce fire risk, improve wildlife habitat, and benefit rural communities. This case study illustrates the methodology for modeling timber volume, biomass estimates, and the forest carbon over time with the output of STM simulations. It presents how the Forest Inventory and Analysis data were applied to assist the interpretation of STM simulation results and derives useful information to the public. The method was applied in the central Washington study area to project the timber production, biomass supply potential, and aboveground carbon stock for two alternative management scenarios.

Parent Publication

• Proceedings of the First Landscape State-and-Transition Simulation Modeling Conference, June 14–16, 2011, Portland, Oregon

Citation

Zhou, Xiaoping; Hemstrom, Miles A. 2012. Forecasting timber, biomass, and tree carbon pools with the output of state and transition models. In: Kerns, Becky K.; Shlisky, Ayn J.; Daniel, Colin J., tech. eds. Proceedings of the First Landscape State-and-Transition Simulation Modeling Conference, June 14–16, 2011, Portland, Oregon. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-869. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station: 115-122.