Spatiotemporal distribution patterns of forest fires in northern Mexico

Abstract

Using the 2000-2011 CONAFOR databases, a spatiotemporal analysis of the occurrence of forest fires in Durango, one of the most affected States in Mexico, was conducted. The Moran's index was used to determine a spatial distribution pattern; also, an analysis of seasonal and temporal autocorrelation of the data collected was completed. The geographically weighted regression was applied to assess whether there is seasonality in the factors that influence their occurrence. The results indicate that forest fires are distributed in an aggregated manner and are not temporally correlated. It was found that precipitation, temperature, altitude, distance to roads and population severity index are non-stationary. The occurrence of fires is manifested according to population density and access roads, confirming the importance of socioeconomic factors in the distribution of these events. Low rainfall and high temperatures are climatic factors also greatly affecting fire occurrence.

Parent Publication

• Proceedings of the fourth international symposium on fire economics, planning, and policy: climate change and wildfires

Citation

Pérez-Verdin, Gustavo; Márquez-Linares, M. A.; Cortes-Ortiz, A.; Salmerón-Macias, M. 2013. Spatiotemporal distribution patterns of forest fires in northern Mexico. In: González-Cabán, Armando, tech. coord. Proceedings of the fourth international symposium on fire economics, planning, and policy: climate change and wildfires. Gen. Tech. Rep. PSW-GTR-245 (English). Albany, CA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station: 202-212.