Evidence-based planning for forest adaptation

Abstract

Forest conservation under climate change requires conserving species both in their present ranges and where they may exist in the future as climate changes. Several debates in the literature are pioneering this relatively novel ground. For instance, conservation planning using species distribution models is advocated because it uses information on both exposure to climate change and species’ sensitivities to climate change, while approaches focusing on land facets are advocated because there is uncertainty regarding both exposure and sensitivity. Other debates include assisted/managed migration versus natural dispersal as management paradigms and longdistance dispersal versus microrefugia as mechanisms of plant dispersal in the face of climate change. While these debates are invaluable to understand these new problems, in practical conservation planning they can become a barrier to effective action. Investing exclusively in one approach is a poor strategy in the face of uncertainty. A well-resourced conservation plan should draw information from multiple approaches (e.g., modeling, land facets and expert opinion). A formal portfolio theory can integrate results from multiple approaches and provide better long-term conservation results in the face of uncertainty in the Anthropocene.

Parent Publication

• Forest conservation and management in the Anthropocene: Conference proceedings

Citation

Hannah, Lee; Lovejoy, Thomas E. 2014. Evidence-based planning for forest adaptation. In: Sample, V. Alaric; Bixler, R. Patrick, eds. Forest conservation and management in the Anthropocene: Conference proceedings. Proceedings. RMRS-P-71. Fort Collins, CO: US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. Rocky Mountain Research Station. p. 27-33.