Fire behavior simulation in Mediterranean forests using the minimum travel time algorithm

Abstract

Recent large wildfires in Greece exemplify the need for pre-fire burn probability assessment and possible landscape fire flow estimation to enhance fire planning and resource allocation. The Minimum Travel Time (MTT) algorithm, incorporated as FlamMap's version five module, provide valuable fire behavior functions, while enabling multi-core utilization for the calculations. The primary goal of this study was the MTT implementation for two study areas in Mediterranean forest types of Greece, i.e. Lesvos Island (in North Aegean Sea) and Messenia (in Southwestern Peloponnesus) by calculating burn probabilities, fire size and flame length probability from thousands of simulated fire events (located either randomly or based on historical ignitions). A second goal aimed on estimating fire hazard and vulnerability for several values-at-risk of the study areas. To achieve these goals the necessary geospatial datasets were created by field inventories, remote sensing techniques, geo-statistics and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Weather and fuel moisture inputs were retrieved from nearby weather stations. Maps showing the most fire-prone and high-risk parts of each area were created, along with fire hazard scatter plots for values-at-risk. Interpretation of the results may suggest possible fire fighting strategies, places that need vegetation management, areas that require more patrols and surveillance and areas with increased fire intensity.

Citation

Kalabokidis, Kostas; Palaiologou, Palaiologos; Finney, Mark A. 2014. Fire behavior simulation in Mediterranean forests using the minimum travel time algorithm. In: Fourth Fire Behavior and Fuels Conference Proceedings - At The Crossroads: Looking Toward the Future in a Changing Environment; July 1-4, 2013; St. Petersburg, Russia. Missoula, MT: International Association of Wildland Fire. p. 468-492.