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Abstract
Land managers and others need ways to understand the potential effects of climate change on local vegetation types and how management activities might be impacted by climate change. To date, climate change impact models have not included localized vegetation communities or the integrated effects of vegetation development dynamics, natural disturbances, and management activities. We developed methods to link a dynamic global vegetation model to local state-and-transition models. Our methods allow examination of how climate change effects might play out in localized areas given a combination of vegetation dynamics, natural disturbances, and management actions. Initial results for the eastern Cascades of central Oregon suggest that ponderosa pine forests are likely to remain the dominant forest vegetation type while moist and subalpine forests decline. Sagebrush shrublands will likely also remain the dominant arid land vegetation type, but could undergo substantial fluctuations and begin to give way to shrublands dominated by warm-season species.
Parent Publication
Keywords
Landscapes,
state-and-transition modeling,
vegetation mapping,
fuels,
wildfire hazard,
treatment costs,
biomass,
wildlife habitat,
decision support,
climate change,
watersheds,
community economics,
all ownerships,
geographic information systems,
landscape assessment
Citation
Hemstrom, Miles A.; Halofsky, Jessica E.; Conklin, David R.; Halofsky, Joshua S.; Bachelet, Dominique; Kerns, Becky K. 2014. Chapter 7: Developing climate-informed state-and-transition models. In: Halofsky, Jessica E.; Creutzburg, Megan K.; Hemstrom, Miles A., eds. 2014. Integrating social, economic, and ecological values across large landscapes. Gen.Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-896. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station: 175-202
