How well has the spread of sudden oak death been predicted by the models in northern California?

Abstract

Since Phytophthora ramorum established in the wildlands of California during the 1990s, the disease has spread rapidly throughout the state’s coastal and adjacent counties, likely by a combination of human-aided events (e.g., nursery plant introductions) and natural dispersal. While human-aided events are almost impossible to predict, dedicated efforts have been made to model the natural spread of the disease throughout California. These models have been built upon aerial survey mortality data and/or extensive plot-level data gathered for infested and non-infested locations throughout the range of the disease in California and beyond, plus broader vegetation and weather data that dictate the pathogen’s ability to infect hosts and further disperse. Some of these models have also sought to predict disease spread and intensity under various management scenarios.

Parent Publication

• Proceedings of the sudden oak death sixth science symposium

Citation

Valachovic, Yana; Cobb, Richard; Twieg, Brendan. 2017. How well has the spread of sudden oak death been predicted by the models in northern California? In: Frankel, Susan J.; Harrell, Katharine M., tech. coords. Proceedings of the sudden oak death sixth science symposium. Gen. Tech. Rep. GTR-PSW-255. Albany, CA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station: 11-12.