Conversion economics of forest biomaterials: risk and financial analysis of CNC manufacturing

Camilla Abbati de Assis; Carl J. Houtman; Richard Phillips; Ted Bilek; Orlando J. Rojas; Lokendra Pal; Maria Soledad Peresin; Hasan Jameel; Ronalds Gonzalez

doi:10.1002/bbb.1782

Treesearch

Conversion economics of forest biomaterials: risk and financial analysis of CNC manufacturing

Formally Refereed

Authors:

Camilla Abbati de Assis, Carl J. Houtman, Richard Phillips, Ted Bilek, Orlando J. Rojas, Lokendra Pal, Maria Soledad Peresin, Hasan Jameel, Ronalds Gonzalez

Year:

2017

Type:

Scientific Journal

Station:

Forest Products Laboratory

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1002/bbb.1782

Source:

Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining. 11(4): 682-700.

Download (PDF 1.14 MB)

Download (PDF 1.14 MB): https://research.fs.usda.gov/download/treesearch/55215.pdf

Abstract

Commercialization of cellulose nanocrystals (CNC) presents opportunities for a wide range of new products. Techno-economic assessments can provide insightful information for the effi cient design of conversion processes, drive cost-saving efforts, and reduce fi nancial risks. In this study, we conducted techno-economic assessments for CNC production using information from the USDA Forest Products Laboratory Pilot Plant, literature, and discussions with experts. Scenarios considered included variations related to greenfi eld, co-location, and acid recovery. Operating costs, capital investment, minimum product selling price (MPSP), fi nancial performance metrics, and the effect of drying and higher reaction yields on CNC manufacturing fi nancials were estimated for each scenario. The lowest MPSP was found for the co-location without acid recovery scenario, mainly driven by capital investment. Risk analysis indicates 95% probability of manufacturing costs lower than USD 5900/t of CNC (dry equivalent) and a MPSP lower than USD 7200/t of CNC (dry equivalent). Finally, based on our analysis, we provide guidance on process optimizations that can improve the economic performance of CNC manufacturing process. In addition, a risk profi le of the CNC manufacturing business is provided.

Keywords

Cellulose nanocrystals, risk analysis, techno-economic analysis, CNC, conversion economics

Citation

de Assis, Camilla Abbati; Houtman, Carl; Phillips, Richard; Bilek, E.M. Ted; Rojas, Orlando J.; Pal, Lokendra; Peresin, Maria Soledad; Jameel, Hasan; Gonzalez, Ronalds. 2017. Conversion economics of forest biomaterials: risk and financial analysis of CNC manufacturing. Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining. 11(4): 682-700.