Validation and development of postfire mortality models for upland forest tree species in the southeastern United States

Abstract

Fire effects and behavior models that forecast postfire tree mortality include the First Order Fire Effects Model (FOFEM), BehavePlus, and the Fire and Fuels Extension to the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FFE-FVS). Although these models are national in scope, the underlying equations driving the prediction of fire-related mo1iality were derived from data obtained from coniferous forests in the western United States. For tree species common to upland forests of the southeastern United States, quantitative models that predict mortality following prescribed fire are lacking. Consequently, these fire effects models utilize empirical models developed for western conifers to predict mortality of eastern deciduous and conifer species. Widespread application of models built with data outside the geographic range of application, let alone across functional groups, has the potential to introduce substantial error into model forecasts and misrepresent the ecological effects of prescribed burning. In this study, we (1) validated the equations used by nationally supported fire effects models to predict postfire mortality of upland tree species in the southeastern United States using an extensive and geographically diverse independent dataset; and (2) developed new, species-specific postfire mortality models for some of the most common conifer and deciduous broadleaved tree species/species groups in upland forests of the southeastern United States using easily obtained tree morphological and fire effects data. By developing postfire mortality for the suite of species that comprise upland forests, and incorporating those predictive models into available fire planning tools, managers will have improved ability to predict fire effects and assess the efficacy of burn efforts guided by restoration goals and objectives.

Parent Publication

• Proceeding of the 2017 Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) e-Conference

Citation

Keyser, Tara L.; McDaniel, Virginia L.; Klein, Robert N.; Drees, Dan G.; Burton, Jesse A.; Forder, Melissa M. 2017. Validation and development of postfire mortality models for upland forest tree species in the southeastern United States. In: Keyser, Chad E.; Keyser, Tara L., eds. Proceedings of the 2017 Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) e-conference; 2017 February 28-March 2. e-Gen. Tech. Rep. SRS-224. Asheville, NC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southern Research Station: 98-109.