Misleading prioritizations from modelling range shifts under climate change

Helen R. Sofaer; Catherine S. Jarnevich; Curtis H. Flather

doi:10.1111/geb.12726

Treesearch

Misleading prioritizations from modelling range shifts under climate change

Formally Refereed

Authors:

Helen R. Sofaer, Catherine S. Jarnevich, Curtis H. Flather

Year:

2018

Type:

Scientific Journal

Station:

Rocky Mountain Research Station

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12726

Source:

Global Ecology and Biogeography. 27: 658-666.

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Abstract

Conservation planning requires the prioritization of a subset of taxa and geographical locations to focus monitoring and management efforts. Integration of the threats and opportunities posed by climate change often relies on predictions from species distribution models, particularly for assessments of vulnerability or invasion risk for multiple taxa. We evaluated whether species distribution models could reliably rank changes in species range size under climate and land use change.

Keywords

birds, climate change impacts, discrimination performance, invasion risk assessment, model transferability, model validation, species distribution model, vulnerability assessment

Citation

Sofaer, Helen R.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Flather, Curtis H. 2018. Misleading prioritizations from modelling range shifts under climate change. Global Ecology and Biogeography. 27: 658-666.