Climate change alters distribution of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) with respect to land management status: Are there implications for adaptation?

Abstract

Climate-based predictions of species distributions provide information for understanding impacts of climate change. However, species distribution models do not include land management zones as input. Improving understanding of geographic shifts will require consideration of management zones where certain activities could facilitate or impede responses to climate change. For instance, assisted migration to overcome dispersal barriers could be challenged in areas designated for “untrammeled” character (e.g., wilderness). Alternatively, large tracts of land with uninterrupted disturbance regimes may offer opportunities for disturbance-facilitated establishment of species into new areas. We focused on current and future distributions of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis), a keystone species of treeline. Current and future “climate space” of whitebark pine were overlaid onto ecoregions and land management zones. We also used different thresholds of predicted presence to assess the sensitivity of patterns to varying levels of confidence.

Parent Publication

• Proceedings of the IUFRO joint conference: Genetics of five-needle pines, rusts of forest trees, and Strobusphere; 2014 June 15–20; Fort Collins, CO

Citation

Davíd-Chavez, Dominique M.; Belote, R. Travis; Dietz, Matthew S.; Aplet, Gregory H. 2018. Climate change alters distribution of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) with respect to land management status: Are there implications for adaptation? In: Schoettle, Anna W.; Sniezko, Richard A.; Kliejunas, John T., eds. Proceedings of the IUFRO joint conference: Genetics of five-needle pines, rusts of forest trees, and Strobusphere; 2014 June 15-20; Fort Collins, CO. Proc. RMRS-P-76. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. p. 7.