Efficacy of curtailment announcements as a predictor of lumber supply

Henry Spelter

Treesearch

Efficacy of curtailment announcements as a predictor of lumber supply

Informally Refereed

Authors:

Henry Spelter

Year:

2001

Type:

Miscellaneous Publication

Station:

Forest Products Laboratory

Source:

Forest products journal. Vol. 51, nos. 7/8 (July/Aug. 2001).:p. 44-46.

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Abstract

A practical method for tracking the effect of curtailment announcements on lumber supply is described and tested. Combining announcements of closures and curtailments with mill capacities enables the creation of accurate forward-looking assessments of lumber supply 1 to 2 months into the future. For three American and Canadian lumber- producing regions, the method produced projections of supply that were within 0.5 percent accuracy for a 7-month period encompassing June to December 2000. Announcements of production intentions are an important piece of market intelligence that can help guide assessments of demand-supply in a volatile market environment.

Keywords

Lumber, Forest products industries, Sawnwood, Prediction, Market intelligence, Supply balance

Citation

Spelter, Henry. 2001. Efficacy of curtailment announcements as a predictor of lumber supply. Forest products journal. Vol. 51, nos. 7/8 (July/Aug. 2001).:p. 44-46.