Alaska softwood market price arbitrage.

Abstract

This study formally tests the hypothesis that markets for Alaska lumber and logs are integrated with those of similar products from the U.S. Pacific Northwest and Canada. The prices from these three supply regions are tested in a common demand market (Japan). Cointegration tests are run on paired log and lumber data. Our results support the conclusion that western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla (Raf.) Sarg.) and Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis (Bong.) Carr.) logs from Alaska share an integrated market with logs produced in the other two regions. Results are less clear for lumber. Given this evidence that markets are at least imperfectly integrated, Alaska production and exports of forest products will continue to be sensitive to international market conditions, including competition from other North American producing regions.

Citation

Stevens, James A.; Brooks, David J. 2003. Alaska softwood market price arbitrage. Res. Pap. PNW-RP-556. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 12 p